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مدل ارزیابی و کاهش خطرپذیری زلزله در بافت‌های تاریخی مطالعه موردی: بازار تاریخی اردبیل
سيمين اسدزاده تره باري, کامبد اميني حسيني, محمود حسيني

چکیده

وقوع زلزله در بافت‌هاي تاريخي با ارزش اقتصادي نظير بازارهاي سنتي ضمن آسيب به زيرساخت‌هاي هويتي شهرها، مي‌تواند تبعات گستردة اجتماعي و اقتصادي در جامعه به همراه داشته ‌باشد. علي‌رغم اهميت زياد اين بافت‌ها، مطالعات اندکي در خصوص ارتقاي ايمني و مديريت بحران بافت‌هاي تاريخي در برابر زلزله شده است و اين مسئله ضرورت انجام پژوهش‌هاي مرتبط را آشکار مي‌کند.

در اين مقاله با هدف شناخت وضعيت خطرپذيري لرزه‌اي بافت‌هاي تاريخيِ داراي ارزش اقتصادي‌ـ فرهنگي، مدل جديدي بر مبناي ترکيب شاخص‌هاي خطر، آسيب‌پذيري لرزه‌اي و ظرفيت‌هاي مقابله در برابر زلزله عرضه شده است. اين شاخص‌ها و مقادير کمّي مؤلفه‌هاي مربوطه بر مبناي بررسي تبعات زلزله‌هاي گذشته، مطالعه ادبيات فني مرتبط، و ارزيابي‌هاي تحليلي و چندجانبه تعيين شده است. همچنين ضرايب وزني اين شاخص‌ها بر اساس نظر متخصصان امر و با استفاده از روش AHP تعيين گرديده است. مدل عرضه‌شده سپس به صورت موردي به منظور تعيين خطرپذيري لرزه‌اي در بازار سنتي شهر اردبيل استفاده شد و نحوة اصلاح شاخص‌هاي تأثيرگذار در بهبود خطرپذيري متناسب با مداخلات اجرايي بررسي گرديد. اين ارزيابي نشان داد که مدل پيشنهادي قابليت ارزيابي ميزان خطرپذيري لرزه‌اي بازار‌هاي سنتي را دارد و با استفاده از آن مي‌توان مداخلات کاهش خطرپذيري و عرضة برنامه‌هاي کوتاه‌مدت، ميان‌مدت، و بلندمدت را شناسايي و ترتيب انجام آن‌ها را اولويت‌بندي کرد.
واژگان کلیدی
شاخص خطرپذيري زلزله، بافتهاي تاريخي ـ تجاري، مديريت بحران، بازار تاريخي اردبيل.

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